2022 Pre-Election Outlook

The primary season concluded on September 13th, and we now head into the final few weeks before the November 8th midterm elections. After reaching a last-minute government funding deal at the end of September, both the House and Senate left D.C. for the next five weeks to focus on campaigning. Majority Leader Schumer (D-NY) ultimately scrapped plans for the Senate to return for a two-week session period in mid-October, which means items like the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) will be punted to the lame duck session (more on this below). Regarding the midterms, we continue to believe that Republicans will take control of the House, but the margin by which they do so remains unknown. Additionally, the race for control of the Senate is still too close to predict. With many moving parts and of course, the potential for an “October surprise,” we will refrain from over-speculating about the elections’ results. For now, we have provided an overview of the lay of the land, including political trends, key races to watch in both Chambers, and other factors to consider heading into November and looking forward into the lame duck session and 118th Congress.